3/8 are pretty good random-lynch chances. Also, even if we no-lynch today we would be left with nine town, four mafia, and two third-party. With over double the amount of non-town when opposed to non-town, we would have to lynch correctly four times out of six and end with a correct lynch in order to win (three town, zero mafia, two third-party).

Hey, but... that's ok considering we all lynch randomly. But Mafia will not random lynch, they all will go for lynching a townie, and they can easily chooose one target that looks scummy enough. The odds for a scum random lynch are in fact really lower.

I can't get why do you want to start one, however.

by the way, I vote: No Lynching because of the reasonings above.

I'm still thinking about the possibility of a third-party killer. If we do have one, then we should probably do a random lynch today, as no-lynching would put us in a bad spot. Again, this is assuming we have a third-party killer (which we should mind you).

Chances are actually even better than that.

Currently, it's 10 town/ 6 non-town. However, because Genis is most likely town and if the person choosing the lynch is town, it's actually 6/14 chance of lynching scum; 43% Furthermore, when one also excludes more people likely to be town (imo unknown; not sure about others yet...) chances increase as well. We can potentially get a 50/50 chance or better of lynching mafia if we keep the discussion going.

I'm curious to see how TSO will react with two votes on him.
Vote: TSO

Oh, to those who didn't know I meant 194 when I said unknown.

In case I get misinterpreted, what I mean here, is that we should assume that there is a third-party killer until proven otherwise.

Third party killer would basically mean a town loss.

Day/night one
-Town lynches mafia
-Mafia kills town
-Killer kills town
-Eight:three:two

Day/night two
-Town lynches mafia
-Mafia kills town
-Killer kills town
-Six:two:two

Day/night three
-Town lynches mafia
-Mafia kills town
-Killer kills town
-Four:one:two

Day/night four
-Town lynches mafia
-Killer kills town
-Three:two

Day/night five
-Town lynches third-party
-Killer kills town
-Two:one

1/3 chance of town win

That's also assuming we magically always lynch correctly.

I seriously have no idea what to do right now. Can we get a role list? Like, 3 investigative roles of some sort, one protective role, etc.

But that would take out all the fun and strategy of the game. We were lucky to get an alignment list.

Sorry for DP.
Fly or die why would you assume that the third party role would only kill townies? This third party could be a lonely individual for all we know. I'm sure they would also want to kill mafia. Same goes for mafia, why wouldn't they kill the third party? This makes your theory completely invalid. The chances of the town winning is completely random. Yet it's quite strange you assumed this, unless of course you know something that we don't.

Ok, I think I was ninja'd approximately 20 times, but I guess some of this still applies. The following is what I was going to post:



Now, let us look at our odds of successfully hitting an antagonistic role on a random lynch, excluding those two. That leaves us with 8 townies and 6 antagonists, or a 43% chance of lynching an antagonist. Those are, admittedly, some of the best odds that we will ever get. However, as Unknown pointed out, no random lynch is truly random with scum involved. They will either "randomly" suggest someone, knowing full well that said person is a townie/third party, or they will latch on to a townie's random lynch suggestion, ensuring a non-scum death. Either way, we lose.

Vote: No lynch.

Considering that this is a themed mafia game, we are at an advantage when it comes to determining whether there is a third-party killer or not. Let us look the list of balancers, first of all.



I have taken the liberty of highlighting those members of the team that are also developers. They are the likeliest candidates for mafia roles, I believe. What we must consider, though, is which persons would be most suitable as third parties. Is anyone in this group a bit of a loner? If so, would it make sense for a killing role to be based on them? Meaning no offense to him whatsoever, if I had to guess at a person to base a third-party killer on, it would be The Cadet. He hasn't been around in a long time and has a tendency to get angry on the occasion, two things which could very well fit a serial killer-like role. On the other hand, I don't think DJ Wizzard has been around long enough to be familiar with him. It really could be either way at this point.

I believe that he already told us that he won't be posting a roles list.

For reasons stated, I'm starting to lean more towards the fact that there isn't a third-party killer. However, we should still keep that possibility in our mind, seeing as we don't know what the roles are. Anyways, I'm No Lynching until we get more evidence.

We could use random.org for a random lynch to make it truly random. That's a habit I've recently fallen in to.

Double Post.

Just did it, random.org landed on me (12). Not good for me, but w/e

Well, let's solve this problem.

Assume that a person votes randomly. If that person is mafia, and, assuming there are just 4 mafias, he will vote randomly between the other 12 players. Non-scums will vote randomly between any other player.

So, the probability of someone voting randomly a mafia is:

P(X Voting mafia)=P(X is non-mafia)*P(non-mafia voting mafia)+P(X being mafia)*P(Mafia voting mafia)
=12/16*4/15+4/16*0 (Mafia wouldn't vote a mafia, you know)
=1/5.

That's the exact probability that any random person has of being voting a mafia member.