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McLeodGaming Mafia XII [All Stars] 
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Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 7:41 pm
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DJ Wizard Cop wrote:
Ok, first things first, assuming that only the last statement up there is true, then BelieveBlood is pretty much confirmed Notscum.
Why, you ask? Because he had no idea how the Herzel role worked. If he was a Mafia member, don't you find it likely that he would have researched his friend's abilities and discussed them Night 1?

That's true. I see what you're saying. So, Believeblood is probably innocent.

In which case, there was framer interference. That makes sense; framers are much more powerful when messing with my role, with 2x chance to screw something up.


Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:18 am
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DJ Wizard Cop wrote:
Ok, first things first, assuming that only the last statement up there is true, then BelieveBlood is pretty much confirmed Notscum.
Why, you ask? Because he had no idea how the Herzel role worked. If he was a Mafia member, don't you find it likely that he would have researched his friend's abilities and discussed them Night 1?

I actually disagree with this. I've seen people feign ignorance of their roles before in order for someone to think they're town for exactly what DJ said. While I don't think BB is scum, he isn't cleared for this reason.

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Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:41 am
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Yes, but judging from past experience, BelieveBlood has gotten much better at this game if he's employing that tactic.

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Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:53 am
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Guys, I think many of you are making the same mistake that I made with Dephius. Namely, being scared of his claim without bothering to actually think about how he was playing. Any form of investigative role is one of the safest claims for scum to make, not the other way around. If the town buys it, its a huge boon for steering lynches and keeping heat off of oneself. Don't believe me? Read Mafia 5, friends. The cop claim tactic was used to great effect by yours truly.

Additionally, a Town Fly or Die lynch gives us as much or more information than a Town Believeblood lynch would. Fly or Die's play is more scum-inclined by a significant margin. My vote stands.

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Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:11 am
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Oh, something I forgot. There seems to be a general consensus that 135 is confirmed town. I'm pretty sure that he is confirmed non-scum, but I am unsure as to how third party was completely ruled out.

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Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:03 pm

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Unvote: Fly or Die

I really urge everyone to look back at day 1 and 2 before you make your decisions.

FoD doesn't look very scummy now.


Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:04 pm

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Requesting replacement for Void at least.


Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:18 pm
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Seriously, he hasn't posted in almost a week.


Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:29 pm
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Void has accepted to be replaced. I have sent notifications to players in the replacements list.

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Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:30 pm
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Brikmaninoff wrote:
Guys, I think many of you are making the same mistake that I made with Dephius. Namely, being scared of his claim without bothering to actually think about how he was playing. Any form of investigative role is one of the safest claims for scum to make, not the other way around. If the town buys it, its a huge boon for steering lynches and keeping heat off of oneself. Don't believe me? Read Mafia 5, friends. The cop claim tactic was used to great effect by yours truly.

Additionally, a Town Fly or Die lynch gives us as much or more information than a Town Believeblood lynch would. Fly or Die's play is more scum-inclined by a significant margin. My vote stands.


What if he is our only investigative role? I'm not sure lynching him is the best course of action. His claim also seems to be in line with his reactions.


Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:38 pm
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Also,
Vote: Void


Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:39 pm
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Ok, more lists.

Confirmed not scum:
Terra
135
DJ Wizard Cop
Lucina

Almost confirmed not scum:
TOWK
BelieveBlood

That leaves Brik, Void, Crabby and FoD.

If this list is correct, then likely half of these people are town. Assuming we lynch FoD and he's a townie (likely a 1/2 chance of happening)
Then this is what would happen in the worst case scenario:

FoD and one other townie dies. Day 4 start, we have 3 suspects.
Random lynch, let's say Brik. He's flips town. Another townie dies, Day 5 start. We now have 2 suspects, 2 Mafia, 1 third party and 3 townies.
This is either a town victory or Mafia victory depending on the third party. IF YOU'RE THE THIRD PARTY AND YOU CAN HELP IT, PLEASE LET US LYNCH ONE OF THE MAFIAS. THERE WILL BE ONE MAFIA LEFT AND WE'LL BE MORE FLEXIBLE TO HELP YOU FULFIL YOUR WIN CONDITION.

So, worst case scenario, unless we have some extraordinarily good scum players, we lose a very close game. Every other scenario, we win.

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Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:07 pm
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DJ Wizard Cop wrote:
Almost confirmed not scum:
TOWK
BelieveBlood

I'm confused as to how you reached these conclusions. Would you be so kind as to let us in on your thought process?

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Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:15 pm
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Oh, by the by, I would be for a Void lynch in order to give Fly or Die a night to prove himself. He seems to fall into the scum/third party slot no matter which way we slice the cake.

Vote: Void

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Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:18 pm
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Cuz maybe I'm a sucker for bussing (I have fond memories of the wonders of bussing from MG 3)

But TOWK had his vote on Deph for the majority of Day 2.

And BelieveBlood for reasons stated earlier. They may not be clear in your book but they're clear in mine.

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Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:28 pm
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