I analyzed our situation again, this time with the assumption that we have a Serial Killer to deal with and that any protective roles fail in their attempts to save someone.

A
Day 1: Town lynches townie.
Day 2: Ratio is 5 townies to 4 mafia/others.

B
Day 1: Town lynches scum.
Day 2: Ratio is 6 townies to 3 mafia/others.

C
Day 1: Town does not lynch.
Day 2: Ratio is 6 townies to 4 mafia/others.

D
Day 1: Town lynches Serial Killer.
Day 2: Ratio is 7 townies to 3 mafia/others.

Probability of lynching mafia/other: With DJ Wiz and Believeblood cleared*, we now have a 4/10 chance of lynching scum/other, so 40%. These odds are better, yes, but if we have a Serial Killer among us, then lynching a townie hurts us even more. It’s probably better, in fact, to have DJ Wiz investigate Crabby tonight and decide whether to lynch him tomorrow based on the evidence instead of trying our hand at the lottery that is lynching today.

The other thing preventing me from voting for Crabby is that I am getting serious scum/killer vibes from Kevinb. He jumps in, attempts to reassure us that we don’t have a Serial Killer to deal with, and soon after, he conveniently sees the logic of the majority and concrete votes for Crabby. The thing is, if he is a Serial Killer, then lynching either a townie or a mafia member would help him.

Let's throw some pressure on, see where that takes us. Vote: Kevinb1229.


*If no one has counter-claimed Layton by now, then I think this is a safe bet.

I'll tell all of you right now that Layton is not a ordinary investigation roles. 194 twisted Layton's abilities a little so it would make him more Layton like,then more then cop like. I'm not sure if DJ wizard would want me to yap about his abilities so I might hold off on telling everyone until I either get an okay for DJ or the deadline approaches more(say like the last hour.) I'll say this though he can NOT investigate one hand picked individual. That is all.

alright im really sorry i had internet problems the last few days but im back now,so was i replaced?

Yep

Yeah. I'm pretty sure if you tell 194 why you were gone, he could put you back in as a replacement should anyone else have to get booted from the game.

Alright thanks for both of your guys help

Long, long ago, Darkwolf.

I'm still not sure. It seems as though BB and DJ Wiz are clear, although I would like DJ Wiz to comfirm this. Kebin and Pachino are bandwagoning, too.

@Brik
2 things. You forgot to factor in a possible vig; and, I actually doubt that there is a vig and a serial killer in this game. Vig has little chance of hitting scum the first two nights, and serial killer does whatever. With mislynch and maff-kill, that makes a maximum of 4 village kills, and a village auto-lose. Although this has a microscopic chance of happening by Day 2, by Day 3 or 4 there is an all-to likely chance that town ends up with only one-half or so of the live citizens and auto-loses. Thus, no vig/no serial killer is more likely than both IMO.

EDIT: Triple ninja'd?

My vote count:
[5]crabbyman66:Believeblood,DJ Wizard cop, Pathera Leo,Kevinb1229, Panchino,
[2]No lynch:Crabbyman66,The silent one.
[1]Kevinb1229:Brikmeator.
Not voting:
Genis,
Gold,
Tid,
Fly or die.
With 12 people left it takes 7 votes to lynch someone.
Deadline:In 3 hours and 42 minutes.

Oh, and it's "BrikMAETHor", not "BrikMEATor".

Whoops typo.

lol@translation

We are in a mess right now. People are accusing each other of being scum, and the consistent NL/RL/Scumhunt switching is driving me mad. Honestly, the mafia could be doing nothing and just wait to see if we lynch a townie. After re-reading, I am, however, beginning to FoS both Gold and Brik. Their arguments are swaying the entire town with arguements containing few flaws. Brik's attempt to shift attention (whether intentional or not) from Crabby wasn't very pro-town :/

Edit: Ninja'd

Sorry I've been a little inactive lately, but it's the weekend now and I can catch up a littl-
oh wow. This is... M,essy, to say the least. There are so many potential pairings right now, I'm not even sure who i should be watching carefully.
The only way we're going to get anywhere in mass confusion, in my opinion, is to NL and see who dies tonight, and see what the "investigators" have to tell us. Thoughts?

Right now, it seems as though Kevin and Crabby are the most suspicious. However, I do have slight suspicions of Brik and Gold. The fact that we all can't agree on who to lynch is driving me mad. With the deadline in about three hours, a NL is likely to happen anyways. Hopefully, tonight's death(s), and/or our investigators will give us something useful. I'm just going to wait and see what happens.

Oh, forgot to add
No Lynch