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MG Mafia XVII: JoJo's Bizarre Mafia (Fin) 

Who should host next game?
Poll ended at Tue Nov 26, 2013 1:48 pm
CXCIV - Turnabout Mafia (Ace Attorney) 63%  63%  [ 12 ]
Terra - All-stars 2 (Roles based on previous mafia game roles) 11%  11%  [ 2 ]
TheOneWhoKnocks - DotA-themed Mafia (Roles based on heroes from the games) 16%  16%  [ 3 ]
Axel - Kibgdom Hearts Mafia (uPick setup) 11%  11%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 19

MG Mafia XVII: JoJo's Bizarre Mafia (Fin) 
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Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:01 am
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TheOneWhoKnocks wrote:
With 5 of us left, there COULD be 2 Mafia left. Deciton did say partnerS, plural. Although that could have been him messing with us. Shoop is confirmed town via revival. I'm confirmed town because a dead, confirmed town player (Deph) had info that Jonathan Joestar is in the game, and I am an uncountered Jonathan Joestar. I'm willing to believe DJ is confirmed town because I never mentioned at any time that I had the ability to become more than a vanilla eventually, and he said his role tells him if he dies Jonathan gets a buff. If this turns into a reversal of SSBMafia, where he "confirmed" me, I'm going to be gosh-dang pissed.

What did everyone do last night?


So you think that, at best case, either KA or me are mafia, and in worst case, BOTH of us are scum?

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:18 pm
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That is indeed what I'm saying.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:23 pm
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Last night I used my ability so I wouldn't be shot. And as far as the remaining scum, I'm seeing 194 or Arthur as scum. DJ has a solid claim as Zeppeli, backed up by TOWK's claim, and TOWK is confirmed town along with myself. Having both Arthur AND 194 as scum would put us at LyLo too, wouldn't it? We need to be really careful with this day. I've had my eye on Arthur this entire time, and 194 hasn't slipped below my radar, either. I think that 194's lying about his ability usage.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:28 pm
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Targeted King Arthur, pretty much the only person I haven't targeted at this point. No result.

194, please explain to me how you can not be scum at this point, since you're still unwilling to believe that TOWK is confirmed town.
He claimed Jonathan Joestar, Deph confirmed Jonathan to be in the game, and everyone has claimed at this point. There is no way TOWK can be scum.

King Arthur, did you receive a PM saying your action went through?

I'm leaning town on King Arthur but it depends on his response to the above question^

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:31 pm
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At this point, I've used at this point five times in the last two posts.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:32 pm
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While I prepare my defense, I'd like to point out how the fact that DJW got a no-result from KA confirms the fact that I jailkept him.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:38 pm
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Or he got roleblocked.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:25 pm
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Be warned, this is a LONG post.

Current game state and possible solution cases.


Abstract:
I present a full analysis of the current state of the game, and construct every possible solution for the ultimate question: Who is scum?

1.- Introduction, and easiest solution.
This is the current state of the game, with five players:

    TOWK: uncounterclaimed Jonathan Joestar.
    DJW: Lead scumhunter during the whole game.
    Shoop: Confirmed revived player.
    King Arthur: he's ... there.
    194: most likely to be scum player.

If we assume the first three players are town, then effectively we have at least one scum member between KA and me.

Now, we either have one scum player left, or two. If we have one, it can't be KA, since I jailkept him and the kill still went.

So, if the three players left there are town and we have only one scum player left, then yes, the remaining Mafia member HAS to be me.

Solution Case 0:
194 is the only remaining scum player.


But I know that's not true. And even if I didn't know, I know using the simplest solution goes against what Mafia is.


2.- Solution cases for a 194/KA scum team.


Now, let's go for the contradiction proofs:

Let's assume we have two remaining mafia players, but the three players mentioned above are all town. In that case, Mafia has to be me + KA. And the first two post of this day make that sound risky if not outright impossible. DJ just confirmed I jailkept KA, and under this assumption it means... I jailkept my own scumbuddy. That makes no sense.

Now a clever player would point out "Maybe you did it for town points" and then I answer that it would be far easier to just FAKE a jailkeep rather than really perform it.

And now another clever player would say "But actually jailkeeping him was safe, and you could have read DJ using his ability on him so you went for it". Then, why couldn't I just jailkeep DJ instead of limiting the actions of my own buddy?

And the final clever player answers "Maybe you did jailkeep DJ. It explains the result and fits nicely with everything."

...

And I'm rendered speechless.

Solution Case 1:
194 and King Arthur are scumbuddies. 194 jailkept DJ Wizard Night 5, preventing him from getting any result on King Arthur. Shoop, TOWK and DJW are all town players.


(to be continued on next post)

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:37 pm
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I attempted to switch myself and TOWK, assuming he'd be targeted next, but got a "None" as the result again.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:41 pm
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3.- Solution cases for a single, non-194 scum player.

NOW, before you go quicklynch me and give this game in a silver platter to the mafia players, let's explore other options:

In my first supposition, I stated

"Let's assume we have two remaining mafia players, but the first three players mentioned above [TOWK, DJ and Shoop] are all town."

Now we wil go for another possibility: Let's suppose we have a single mafia player remaining and that player is either DJ or TOWK. It has to be one of them both, since Shoop was confirmed town by the moderator herself, and we only suppose one scum member left.

If we now assume TOWK is town, which is fully supported by other confirmed players, then our scope narrows to a certain wizard.

Solution Case 2:
DJ Wizard Cop is the only remaining scum player.


DJ Wiz will now ask why my sudden change of view: First I was doubtful of TOWK's confirmation, and now I use it as a base for a case against him. However, it is worth noticing that I'm supposing it for the purposes of this analysis. Also, DJ Wiz himself supports the town status of TOWK, as pretty much every other player still alive does.

If TOWK is not confirmed town then any of them (or both) could be scum. However, for the purposes of keeping this analysis simple, I guess I'll have to accept the confirmed status. If you are scum, TOWK, you played me like a violin.

4.- Cases for a scum pair, non 194-KA

Finally, there's a case I haven't considered. What if we have two scum players and at least one of DJ/TOWK is scum?

I've already proven the possibility of a 194/KA team, so let's go with others:

A DJ/194 link is possible. It would mean their current cases against each other are nothing but a beautiful facade.
A DJ/KA case makes sense since it implies they foreshadowed 194's ability usage and are setting him up. However, all our cases so far imply at least one of them got jailkept. It would be extremely hard to create a setup for framing in so little time.
A DJ/TOWK link is basically our doom. But again, I'm accepting TOWK as confirmed town so this is not possible. Let's say the same for every link involving TOWK.

So we have to add this cases:

Solution Case 3:
194 and DJ Wizard Cop are scumbuddies. They are faking to go for each other so if one falls the other gets safe.

Solution Case 4:
King Arthur and DJ Wizard Cop are scumbuddies.


4.- Conclusions and future work.


Let's notice how three of the four cases imply I'm scum, and three of the cases imply DJ is scum. However, this doesn't mean that is equally likely for either. To get a proper probability number, a finer analysis is needed.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:51 pm
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Wait a minute. This day doesn't matter. I don't believe DJ is scum, and either our final scum or two final scum are within Arthur and 194. 5 players. One gets lynched today one dies tonight. 3 players in LyLo tomorrow. BUT... Shoop upgrades into a Stump-making monster tonight. We lynch one of the two today, Shoop stumps the other tonight. Theoretically, let's say we lynch 194 today. Arthur gets Stumped tonight, rendering him helpless and unable to perform a kill. If a kill occurs, it's DJ. If a kill doesn't occur, and all four of us are still alive, we lynch Arthur under the assumption that he is the mafia. If he happens to not be and DJ just no-killed to get us to lynch Arthur, Shoop Stumps him that night and he can't kill us so Shoop and I lynch him tomorrow.
Vote: 194
No one hammer until everyone sees this.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:26 pm
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Nevermind f*** me it's day 6, Shoop upgrades night 7. My argument mostly still stands though. We have 5 players and 2 suspects. One today one tomorrow. If it's DJ, he can hold this over me forever.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:28 pm
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I tried.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:32 pm
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CXCIV wrote:
While I prepare my defense, I'd like to point out how the fact that DJW got a no-result from KA confirms the fact that I jailkept him.

While I prepare to demonstrate that there are flaws in most of your conclusions I'd like to point out that

1. My role only affects vampires, so I would have only gotten a result if 1. King Arthur was a vampire 2. King Arthur had died and 3. You hadn't "jailkept" them.

2. I have gotten a no result every night this game, whether you "jailkept" my target or not.

@TOWK: While I agree with your plan and I don't really see any other options, I'm still wondering why Dec literally threw himself away fully aware that something like it could happen.

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:43 pm
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Sadly the fact that you haven't just quickhammered to win proves:

-You aren't scum, (which is not viable)
-You are the only scum (you wouldn't risk to quickhammer me if you were)

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Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:46 pm
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