It should be a given that there's an innocent role in play, so there's one.

BB, I think you massively overrate the cop in the setup. First of it all, it's a one shot role, meaning it will just use its ability once. Given that the setup contains 7 townies and 3 scums, chances are that the cop will find a town member rather than a mafiosi. Also, as he can use his ability just once, he is likely to claim as soon as he gets results. Therefore, he's roughly the same than the innocent child (which has the advantage of being un counter-claimable, because it will be confirmed by the mod itself).

I see, in your post, an attempt of derailing the thoughts of the town about the roles you scums picked. While well worded, and probably sound for newb players, it won't work on me.

Welcome to my FoS list.

Yes, I would argue that actually innocent child is the more useful role in this setup, out of those two. They're essentially going to reveal the same result only the innocent child can't be CCed.

Oh, I thought that the cop had infinite investigation... I guess that changes things then.

You said it yourself that it was a one shot cop.
Did you miss the one shot part?

In the article quite frank linked to, it said that once at night, you may investigate a player in the game by PM'ing the mod. You will get results back in the form of Town, Mafia or No Result.

It did not specify if he could use his ability again for the rest of the game(it would have been more accurate had the sentence been"Once per game, during night."). So I just assume that one shot was just a sort of decorative term.
I also assume the same thing about the two shot vigilante.

I interpreted it the other way, but I guess I can see how you could get confused by it.

1)Two months, but first game on MG.
2)Can't decide.
3)Rolecop.
4)Jailkeeper.
5)To play with the people on MG a solid game of Mafia.

I wholeheartedly agree with CaKl's statement that the cop is overrated, especially since it is one shot. What are the chances that you'll hit a scum if you pick at random? Even if you do aim properly, there are still scummy players that look like scum and may be town, so it may be wasted. This is not even taking into account the sheer stupidity of certain players.

IC is definitely useful against the mafia at LyLo, but the mafia will definitely be looking out for the role, and is going to try to kill it immediately.

Vig will not be chosen at all, for a reason: a good vig can take out 2/3 of the scum with his two shots. An experienced vig can pick up on minute scumtells, and rip apart the mafia.

Tracker's probably chosen. The sheer volume of the game makes it hard for the tracker to catch a member of the scum in the killing act, and even then, he doesn't know it the person was trying to do.

As for JK, the randomness factor, like in the cop's situation, should also be taken into account. The random factor means that you have an equal chance of catching a town PR compared to scum. As mentioned before, scummy players who may be town PRs may get thrown into jail, and consequently, blocked.

So I'm thinking the three roles chosen are the IC, one-shot cop, and jailkeeper. The IC's only real asset is the fact that we can trust them once they claim. That could be useful in certain situations, it just doesn't seem too overall useful IMO. The one-shot cop is essentially powerless if they don't use that one chance well and hit a townie. As a few of you had said, I think the randomness of the jailkeeper makes it likely chosen. It can hurt both the town and scum. They could block a kill or stop the cop from getting potentially useful evidence. This is just my two cents.

I would agree with all of that except for IC. I consider that a very valuable role in a game with such minimal investigative ability with which to convict or clear, and let's be honest, we might have the cop or the tracker, but there's no way the maf have give us both.
Vigil is a more likely choice in my opinion. The vigil has no way of knowing for certain about anyone else's alignment without the assistance of another role, so any kills are very possibly going to be grudge based and not with any sort of accuracy. I'm sure the mafia is aware of this, and so I think vigil is a more likely choice than IC. That's my thought process anyway.

Now that I think about it, that makes more sense. The IC is 100% helpful to the town and not at all to the mafia. The vigil is just as random in who he can hurt as the jailkeeper, except it's worse because he's a killing role. I think it's plausable that the mafia took a risk of picking the vigil in hopes that he would kill a few townies for them. I would recommend to the vigil, if there is one, not to try and kill someone Night 1 unless there is substantial evidence against them. It is far too likely you would hit a townie at this stage in the game when there are so many of us.

The problem for the mafia,if they chose a vigil,is that if they fail to kill him as the number of players reduces they could have a real problem on their hands, unless the vigil is dumb and uses his ability recklessly.
Now that I know that the cop can not investigate more then once the innocent child definitely looks more useful to the town compared to the other roles.
The tracker, one shot cop, and the jail keeper are probably the roles the mafia have chosen.

Nixter, sonicstormer, dhragen, input from you guys?