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McLeodGaming Mafia IV [Layton] 
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Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 7:41 pm
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I am going to continue withholding my vote. I can see points in both sides of the arguement. However, I believe that a lynch will do us the most favor-NL'ing just seems week what with a 99.9% chance that maff will kill tonight. Also, there is a chance that maff will kill an investigative role.


Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:04 pm
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@194:
Vote count request
Just wanna see where it's at so far.

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:13 pm
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Believeblood wrote:
Voting for someone just for inactivity ain't my thing cause I know people forget that they ever entered. I can see how this could be use as a tactic for mafia though. Don't post and you won't arouse suspicion (not only that but everyone else starts fighting each other.) Seems like a pretty good plan right? So I'm voting The Silent One. On a side note maybe brikmaethor is right. I mean maybe gold wants us to get into the worst case senario possible, but there's no proving that. Ugh... but maybe brikmaethor want us to think that so we lynch one of our own. GOSH mafia is damn confusing!

I can see why you don't like lynching inactive people, but The Silent One was browsing this section and yet, he hasn't posted anything. That is rather suspicious, don't you think? Also, I can see how Gold is arousing suspicion, but I can't be sure since it is only the first day. If this suspicious behavior were to continue, then that would lead to a possible suspect.

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:15 pm
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Brikmaethor wrote:
Let me demonstrate, however, that I have thought this through, and find a random lynching to be a most unfavorable option.

Let us consider three possible futures that could occur as the result of our actions today, namely A, B and C:

A:
Day 1: The town lynches one of their own. We are now aware of what role we no longer have at our disposition.
Night 1: The town gains the knowledge imparted by night investigations and loses one member to the mafia.
Day 2: The town now has the results of night investigations to guide us in our lynching. The balance is 5 townies to 4 mafia/others and thus we can lynch again. This option gives town the freedom to have at least two lynches of its own choice.


B:
Day 1: The town lynches scum.
Night 1: The town gains the knowledge imparted by night investigations and loses one member to the mafia.
Day 2: The town now has the results of night investigations to guide us in our lynching. The balance is 6 townies to 3 mafia/others and thus we can lynch again. This option gives town the freedom to have at least three lynches of its own choice.

C:
Day 1: No lynch.
Night 1: The town gains the knowledge imparted by night investigations and loses one member to the mafia.
Day 2: The town now has the results of night investigations to guide us in our lynching. The balance is 6 townies to 4 mafia/others and thus we get one lynch of our own choice. Just one.

These scenarios do not take into account that there may be more than one killing role or the unlikely intervention of a doctor, but it would be easy to see where those fit in and how they would affect the status quo on Day 2. They do now. Doc save is incredibly unreliable here and is just as likely to stop vig as they are to stop mafia, both options being less likely than even saving someone. It is more reasonable to assume we have a vig than to assume we have a doctor AND that they will save someone.

Now, needless to say, scenario B is the most favorable. However, if we lynch randomly, it is also the least likely. A is the least favorable, and also the most likely in the event of a random lynching. Yet the chances of hitting mafia as well as retaining our mis lynch balances it out C is in between the two, better than A but worse than B, but it is also the only option that we have nigh-complete control over (Not true, we have control over who we lynch). Again, let me restate that the town gains nothing from lynching an innocent, save the knowledge that we no longer have what could have been a very useful role. Better to keep a useful role and be unaware of it than to know what we could have had if we hadn't killed it off.

Except for the fact that there are few of each character in the game. A person being targeted could reveal their character's name, and if no one cc's that name (in some case) that person is clear. This may be a random lynch, but each person is given the chance to defend themselves, reducing the chance of hitting town.

I must be clear that I am not altogether against the idea of lynching on Day 1. My only gripe is with random lynching. If someone is giving off distinct scum vibes on the first day, then by all means, let us be rid of them. But shooting at random, even with 1 in 3 odds, is hardly a wise choice.

It also bears remembrance that as of now, there is no deadline for lynching. We have time to talk a little bit more, do some more Day 1 scum hunting. Thus, while I am against random lynching, I am not against pressuring. It often sparks up interesting discussion and may reveal some unexpected things. So, to satisfy a little suspicion of mine, I’m going to Vote: Gold.

Things you've forgotten in red. It mostly comes down to letting town have as many lynches as they can where they determine who dies, not mafia.

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:20 pm
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Day 1: Second vote count.

[2] The Silent One: Believeblood, Pachino
[1] Gold: Brikmaethor

Not voting yet:
-crabbyman66
-DJ Wizard Cop
-Fly or Die
-The Silent One
-Panthera Leo
-Tid
-Gold
-Genis
-DarkWolf93

With 12 people alive, you need 7 votes to lynch someone.
DEADLINE: Saturday 10th, 22:00 EST. If deadline is reached with no consensus, no lynch will happen.

YouTube Video:

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Last edited by Ikuyo on Wed Sep 07, 2011 7:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:21 pm
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My suspicion is growing of FoD and Blood, with the quick sheepiness of each other all of a sudden, especially Blood. On two occasions, Blood states some act he doesn't like/is opposed to/doesn't normally do, and then goes ahead and does it anyway.

Exhibit a, Blood wrote:
I really don't like the no lynching option because lynching is the only way to get rid of mafia(unless we have a vigilante.) and people tend to overlook this fact. Even if we have a 33% chance of hitting a non townie it's better then sitting and waiting to get killed at night. However if we do hit a townie then we would be in big trouble so I can see why people would are afraid to lynch on the first day so No lynch.


Exhibit b, Blood wrote:
Voting for someone just for inactivity ain't my thing cause I know people forget that they ever entered. I can see how this could be use as a tactic for mafia though. Don't post and you won't arouse suspicion (not only that but everyone else starts fighting each other.) Seems like a pretty good plan right? So I'm voting The Silent One.


I agree with Brikmaethor. Feeling some scum vibes here, noticing a recurring pattern.

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:25 pm
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In the first case, he was probably just going with the flow there which kind of does seem suspicious. The second case is probably what raised the scum vibe seeing as I was the only one voting for The Silent One. There are two possible explinations for this.
- He voted, thinking everyone else was going to do the same.
- Believeblood is possible scum.

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:36 pm
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I meant to put you down instead of FoD, Pachino.

LET ME REITERATE THAT I DO NOT FOS FLY OR DIE, IT WAS A TYPO.

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:40 pm
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Quote:
- He voted, thinking everyone else was going to do the same.
- Believeblood is possible scum.


These two reasons can be consolidated into one: Believeblood is possible scum. At first, I wrote him off as just a newcomer making an honest mistake. But I'm seeing more patterns here: He says he doesn't like something, does it anyway, retracts his vote, sheeps someone else, rinse + repeat. Believeblood is getting a REEAAALY high scum reading from me.

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:44 pm
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It's it funny that Pachino and Believeblood are the only ones voting for TSO?

The first example I wrote off as just bad wording. The second example seems a little odd. I'll give BB a chance to post.


Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:56 pm
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Panthera leo wrote:
Quote:
- He voted, thinking everyone else was going to do the same.
- Believeblood is possible scum.


These two reasons can be consolidated into one: Believeblood is possible scum. At first, I wrote him off as just a newcomer making an honest mistake. But I'm seeing more patterns here: He says he doesn't like something, does it anyway, retracts his vote, sheeps someone else, rinse + repeat. Believeblood is getting a REEAAALY high scum reading from me.

Hmm...at least something's happening. Anyways I do hate both not lynching on the first day and not voting due to inactivity, but I also see why both of them could help the town. They both have different pros and cons. Not lyching could in sure that we don't lose an extensive amount of players and voting for inactivity could counter the plans of a potential mafia. So even though I don't particurlly like these method I way the pros and cons and see what I should do. That's all.


Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:58 pm
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Explain why you are going back and forth though. I want to see your reasoning behind this.

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:04 pm
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Just curious, why do you FoS me? Also, the only reason I voted for Silent was due to not posting anything. I will keep my vote until he responds.

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:08 pm

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He's actually browsed this topic a couple of times :/


Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:18 pm
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Pachino wrote:
Just curious, why do you FoS me? Also, the only reason I voted for Silent was due to not posting anything. I will keep my vote until he responds.

I found it weird that wherever you went, Blood followed. That seemed like a slight scumteam right there.

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Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:20 pm
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