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McLeodGaming Mafia XII [All Stars] 
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Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:36 pm
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TOWK has a point, why would cthulhu send the investigation to one of our prime suspects on day 1, it doesn't make much sense. I would think that 135 or Cactus would have been sent the results instead.


Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:46 pm
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Believeblood wrote:
TOWK has a point, why would cthulhu send the investigation to one of our prime suspects on day 1, it doesn't make much sense. I would think that 135 or Cactus would have been sent the results instead.


It doesn't quite make sense. What were they trying to achieve when sending the PM to me either way? Unless I am cop(which I am not, and would be highly unlikely), I would not mix up the results. Even then, if the person they investigated was different from the one the cop investigated, it won't work.

@Brik: I'm gonna do a little speculation, as I've done before. Expected number of roles from each game:
2 from MG 3(most interesting role is usurper/poisoner imo, though mortician stands a good chance)
3 from MG 4(194's favorite series. We may have Anton Herzel(my message) and Dmitri Allen(unique right?) as well as Luke)
2 from MG 5(prob. Cleod and one of the maf(Zalozis?))
2 from MG 7
1 from MG 8
2 from MG 9(watcher and someone?)

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:48 am
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Here's why I'm thinking they sent you the PM,
You were a prime suspect D1. BB was considered pretty town D1. The mafia assumed you wouldn't share you had received the PM and you would just start trying to make a case against BB, hence getting you even more flak an leading to your lynch today. Stupid move on their part though, idk why they would assume you wouldn't share it since it essentially confirms you town.

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:42 am
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Or maybe there isn't a send stuff role at all

and Terra made the whole thing up

Kk we have 3 moofias and prob 2 3p and 6 townies.
That's like not good odds at all.

Vote: Brik

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:00 am

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Can I get a Vote Count please?

I'm going to keep my thoughts to myself.


Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:56 pm
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Ok, I think I was misunderstood, so allow me to explain again.

Cthulhu is a town-aligned cop who sends his results to other people instead of receiving them himself. This is important because it allows him to make his results public (assuming cooperation of his chosen recipient) without revealing his identity.

In many McLeodGaming mafia games, there have been mafia-aligned roles that are all variations on the “tell X that Y is guilty” fake dream cop ability. We know this, and by now any such messages should be easy to ignore. The catch is that the Cthulhu role introduces the possibility of there actually being a dream cop. This makes the WIFOMs generated by the mafia role that much stronger.

If we can determine whether Cthulhu us in the game or not, we negate a large chunk of that power. The is where lynching Believeblood comes in. If he flips as town, we can practically confirm that the message was not from Cthulhu, which leads to the natural conclusion that he is not in the game. Voilà, fake dream cop WIFOMs have been brought back down to a manageable level.

If, on the other hand, he flips as scum, the benefits should be pretty obvious. Scum / lynch = good.

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:16 pm
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Voting Dephius: TheOneWhoKnocks, Believeblood
Voting Believeblood: Brikmaninoff
Voting Brikmaninoff: DJ Wizard Cop
Not voting: 135, Terra, Crabby, Lucina, Void, Fly or Die, Dephius

Deadline: October 19th, 22:00 hrs (this post's hour).
With 11 players alive, 6 votes are required to cast a lynch.
If deadline is reached with no consensus, no lynch will happen.

Crabby wrote:
>4 votes on town investigative role

This is exactly why lynching on the first day is going to be a mistake.

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:31 pm
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Yea Brik you're "foregetting" that after we lynch BelieveBlood and he flips as town we're playing 3/2/4, which means that there's less town than everyone else, which means that we pretty much have to lynch perfectly for the rest of the game, which is hard because we've got 3 people steering a mislynch, 2 people who don't care, and only 4 people actually trying to lynch correctly.

= we lose

My vote stays on Brik

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:47 pm
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3 Scum, 2 Third party, and 4 townies? I think townies are the most there, but even so, those aren't good odds.


Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:57 pm
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Yeah but in that scenario we have 5 anti town votes and 4 town votes

= we lose

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:02 pm
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Ok I misread the Chtulu PM, so now I get where Brik is coming from. That being said, DJWC is right. We would be far outnumbered if he flips town, which I see as likely. My vote stays on Deph.
Preedit- Deph, I think he means it's essentially 5 to 4, as the third parties couldn't care who wins.
Preditpredit- well there ya go.

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:03 pm
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Brik's reasoning is sound.

At the moment, Vote: Believeblood

This reasoning, however, is silly.
DJ Wizard Cop wrote:
Yea Brik you're "foregetting" that after we lynch BelieveBlood and he flips as town we're playing 3/2/4, which means that there's less town than everyone else, which means that we pretty much have to lynch perfectly for the rest of the game, which is hard because we've got 3 people steering a mislynch, 2 people who don't care, and only 4 people actually trying to lynch correctly.

= we lose

My vote stays on Brik

That's true if we lynch wrong anyway. Lynching Believeblood either gets scum and confirms a town-sided cop role, or mislynches while confirming a scum role.
If someone else is lynched and it ends up being a mislynch, we get nothing.

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:55 pm
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You're silly.

Intentionally lynching wrong? Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that what you're doing, Crabby?

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:35 pm
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Wizard, you assume that there are two third parties, but you must consider that this is a twelve-player game. A 3 vs. 1 vs. 1 vs. 7 set-up leaves very little room for error on the town side, and I don't think 194 would create such a set-up. I would be willing to bet that there is only one third-party role. Thus, what I propose is not so foolhardy as you think. Besides, either outcome of the lynch leaves a useful vote trail to look at.

Pre-post editation: This isn't intentionally lynching wrong. It's a 50/50 lynch that grants the town useful information either way. This is known as a win-win scenario.

@Crabby: We don't actually get confirmation on Cthulhu's presence if Believeblood flips as scum since the whole thing could have been a mafia WIFOM. But hey, it's a scum lynch so we still win.

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:48 pm
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