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MG Micro Mafia 1: 5P Venge (Mafia Victory) 
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Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:01 am
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Some other comments about why no-lynching now is an awful idea:

First, Day 1 is essential to gather information on the players, as it's the one day where we get unadultered, closer to "true" data from their opinions and playstyles. As such, ending it early is a terrible idea, since we're not likely to get much information in later days.

Second, this is the only day where we can get a vengekill if we lynch town. Therefore, even if we wanted to end this day quick, we're much better off doing it by actually lynching someone rather than no lynching. There are 2 Mafia members in the setup, with one of them being a godfather.

Chances of strking town in a random lynch is 60%, chance of striking a goon are 20%, chances of striking Godfather (WINNING THE GAME) are 20%. If we hit the goon, we get to Day 2 with 3 players and 1 scum, greatly improving our situation and giving us time to better detect godfather based on info from Day 1. If we hit town, he has 50% random chance of hitting scum with the vengekill, which would, again, give us valuble info for Day 2 LyLo. Remember these numbers can be improved via reading the information we collect today and lynching at the end of the day.

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Sat Oct 03, 2015 8:44 pm
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VC incoming.

Votecount 1.0
Voting mage-194
Voting No Lynch-YoshisWoolyWorld, mage
Not voting-kittenpuncher, TSF|Corvid
With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.
The deadline is on the 9th of October, 9:44pm at UTC-5.

In the event of a no lynch, the person with the most votes at the lynch scene will be lynched: if there are no votes at lynch scene, I will track back to find the last vote removed, then lynch them automatically.

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Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:59 pm
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hmmm
vote 194

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:00 am
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Kittenpuncher wrote:
hmmm
vote 194


You've got to bold it dude, like this:

Vote: mage, as you've made a bit of a hasty decision, to avoid lynching the Godfather (aka INSTA WIN) without much thought.

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:14 am
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Ok, I'm going to just going to unvote.

I have to say, voting without actually giving a reason why does seem very suspicious. It seems that I actually need to vote for someone, otherwise we get lynched.

I'm just going to give a limited breakdown of what I know so far, which is very little:
I'm suspecting Corvid of potential scum predominantly because bandwagoning. Firstly, Corvid says:
TSF|Corvid wrote:
I agree, too soon to be particularly sure of a vote


But then immediately hops onto the mage bandwagon. Seems kinda suspicious.

So here our the possible outcomes for lynching mage:

1. Mage is town, and he vengekills a goon. We move onto day 2 with more information, however we are likely restricted from gaining new information.

2. Mage is town, and he vengekills a godfather. Same result as before.

3. Mage is town, and he vengekills a civilian. It's likely we lose after this as there will be more Mafia then town.

4. Mage is the goon. See 1 and 2.

5. Mage is the godfather. We win.

Ok, now for some stats.

We have an 30% chance for Outcome 3 - Worst case scenario to happen.
The other 30% involves vengekilling Mafia.

So, I've unvoted. But I feel it's critical for us to gather information at this stage in the game so we lesson our chances of Outcome 3 happening.

[How many votes does it take to hammer someone again? I assume 3]

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:45 am
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@kp: I'll accept the vote this time but next time please bold your vote, thanks.
~~~~
Votecount 1.1
Voting mage-194, TSF|Corvid
Voting 194-kittenpuncher
Voting No Lynch-mage
Not voting-YoshisWoolyWorld
With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.
The deadline is on the 9th of October, 9:44pm at UTC-5.

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:02 am
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Ok, I'm gonna ask if anyone is around, because this topic is pretty dead.

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:23 pm
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Wait, what?
We've had answers. Furthermore, requests of content with no content will be answered with more non content.

Do you mind explaining your vote KP?

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:26 pm
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oops I meant to vote for mage

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 3:20 pm
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You can change your vote.

However, I feel mage being lynched is inevitable now, so I may just change mine now.

Vote: mage

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:09 pm
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Why not, Change vote: MAGE

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kb wrote:
Seriously, stop &$^#ing harassing me. I'm not some Terrible Evil Overlord Of The Forums you have to vanquish or anything like that.


Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:20 pm
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Yoshi'sWoolyWorld wrote:
You can change your vote.

However, I feel mage being lynched is inevitable now, so I may just change mine now.

Vote: mage

wait, WHAT?

I've neven seen such a badly obvious attempt at bandwagoning.

Vote: Yoshi'sWoolyWorld

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 5:21 pm
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Also, mage, please don't give up. Keep fighting. That's what we need from town, a true deisre to stand in game and find a way to survive, and to find the elusive truth.

I'm going to let it slide because it's your first time playing, but please, NEVER EVER voute yourself. It helps no one but the Mafia.

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 5:25 pm
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Change vote thrice: Yoshi'sWoolyWorld im not a vocal person in mafia town, mafia, or otherwise, but since the no lyncher has changed to lynch me might as well attempt to live.

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kb wrote:
Seriously, stop &$^#ing harassing me. I'm not some Terrible Evil Overlord Of The Forums you have to vanquish or anything like that.


Sun Oct 04, 2015 5:34 pm
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Just to make abosultely sure, do not hammer now. If you want to hammer, state why, and wait at least 24 hours.

Yoshi has to defend himself first.

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Sun Oct 04, 2015 5:41 pm
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