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MG Mafia 23: Carbon-14 
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DJ Wizard Cop wrote:
I'd like to propose that the investigator's investigations be decided by public vote, since there are no framers and then they'll be guaranteed to investigate the same person. Both remain anonymous but we get better results.

As for lynching strategy,
Day 1 correct lynch = Day 2 20% correct lynch chance
Day 1 mislynch = Day 2 lylo 50% correct lynch chance
Day 1 no lynch = Day 2 mylo 40% correct lynch chance

Day 1 no lynch is the best option IMO, Day 1 lynch doesn't provide a very good reward for the risk + D1 NL provides more potential investigations.


Just going by pure probability, I actually disagree with this.

Case 1: D1 correct lynch is the best possible outcome, and not attempting for this would be a mistake.
Case 2: D1 mislynch gives us 50/50 chance for a lynch the next day. That in combination with investigation reports and pr reveals could raise the percent chance even more.
Case 3: D1 no lynch puts us in a similar situation as Case 2, except the chance of mislynch is greater. And even if we no lynch D2 as well, we're just in lylo D3 with chances of victory similar to the Case 2 route.

I'd rather we lynch D1 and attempt to get a statistical advantage.

Also, i agree with town deciding the n1 investigation.

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Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:07 pm
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TOWK wrote:
And then the mafia kill the person they investigated at night lol

I think this is actually an advantage.
The town wants to investigate scummy players, and the mafia/werewolves don't want to kill scummy players.
So either the investigators investigate mafia or we direct the night kill onto a townie that we might have lynched.

@Crabby
Looked through the completed games listed on mafia wiki and got these statistics:

Town won 38% of games
Scum won 62% of games
In games that lynched on day 1, 75% lynched townies on day 1 and 58% were won by scum.
In games that lynched townies day 1, 56% were won by scum
In games that lynched scum on day 1, 67% were won by scum

Only one completed game no lynched on day 1, and it was won by scum.

I'm not sure what to make of these, the majority of town wins came from lynching town on day 1, but that's rather counter intuitive.

Requesting prod on Doqtor Kirby and Droe.

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Thu Feb 26, 2015 6:08 pm
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Alive.

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Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:58 pm
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I'm alive

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Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:56 am
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Doqtor Kirby wrote:
Alive.

Droe wrote:
I'm alive

Okay...?

When you get prodded, you shouldn't respond with a post that produces no content whatsoever.

What do you think of our current situation, and what do you think the best course of action is?


Fri Feb 27, 2015 2:10 am
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Lightning wrote:
Doqtor Kirby wrote:
Alive.

Droe wrote:
I'm alive

Okay...?

When you get prodded, you shouldn't respond with a post that produces no content whatsoever.

What do you think of our current situation, and what do you think the best course of action is?

Sorry. first time playing Mafia on a Forum.

Umm.. I don't think we should Lynch yet. too risky.
That's really all I got.
so many Periods...

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Fri Feb 27, 2015 5:42 pm
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Lightning wrote:
Doqtor Kirby wrote:
Alive.

Droe wrote:
I'm alive

Okay...?

When you get prodded, you shouldn't respond with a post that produces no content whatsoever.

What do you think of our current situation, and what do you think the best course of action is?

I was not prodded, I just saw DJ Wizard Cop's post. (I should not be prodded anyway, I will tell you if I will not be able to play. I am indeed here reading it.)

Vote: Droe

It seems to be either random day 1 lynch or massclaim and given the situation random lynch sounds better in hindsight.

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Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:37 pm
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Doqtor Kirby wrote:
I was not prodded, I just saw DJ Wizard Cop's post. (I should not be prodded anyway, I will tell you if I will not be able to play. I am indeed here reading it.)

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lurking
Your opinion counts, post it.
Doqtor Kirby wrote:
It seems to be either random day 1 lynch or massclaim and given the situation random lynch sounds better in hindsight.

Could you elaborate please? Why do you think random lynch is the best option? Would not "educated lynch based on day 1 reads" be a better option? Why are random lynch and massclaim mutually exclusive?

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Fri Feb 27, 2015 8:05 pm
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Vote Count 2:

Voting TOWK: Pach, Crabby
Voting Droe: Lightning, TOWK, Doqtor Kirby (L-1)

Not voting: Droe, DJW

Deadline: February 28th, 22:00 GMT-4
With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to reach consensus on a lynch.
If deadline is reached with no consensus, no lynch will happen.

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Last edited by Ikuyo on Sat Feb 28, 2015 1:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:27 pm
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DJ Wizard Cop wrote:
Could you elaborate please? Why do you think random lynch is the best option? Would not "educated lynch based on day 1 reads" be a better option? Why are random lynch and massclaim mutually exclusive?

What are day 1 reads? (rhetorical, I know what reads are)
Without any information of any sort (of course without massclaim), would everything be baseless conjecture? So in a sense, "educated lynch" is not a thing at all on day 1 without a massclaim or any sort of claim to work from.
194 wrote:
Vote Count 1:

Voting TOWK: Pach, Crabby, Doqtor Kirby (L-1)
Voting Droe: Lightning, TOWK

Not voting: Droe, DJW

Deadline: February 28th, 22:00 GMT-4
With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to reach consensus on a lynch.
If deadline is reached with no consensus, no lynch will happen.
Doqtor Kirby wrote:
Vote: Droe

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Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:46 pm
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Doqtor Kirby wrote:
What are day 1 reads? (rhetorical, I know what reads are)
Without any information of any sort (of course without massclaim), would everything be baseless conjecture? So in a sense, "educated lynch" is not a thing at all on day 1 without a massclaim or any sort of claim to work from.

No, it's based on analyzing the posts of the other players to find any trace of things that you find either town-like or scum-like.
It's far from baseless conjecture, and it can be done on any day.
Doqtor Kirby wrote:
Vote: Droe

You bold the entire vote phrase. Like so:

Vote: Doqtor Kirby


Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:19 pm
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Lightning wrote:
Doqtor Kirby wrote:
What are day 1 reads? (rhetorical, I know what reads are)
Without any information of any sort (of course without massclaim), would everything be baseless conjecture? So in a sense, "educated lynch" is not a thing at all on day 1 without a massclaim or any sort of claim to work from.

No, it's based on analyzing the posts of the other players to find any trace of things that you find either town-like or scum-like.
It's far from baseless conjecture, and it can be done on any day.

True. But consider the risk of doing so. Mislynching a townie for being scum greatly reduces the chances of town winning because now we have one less player. It's 5 town 2 mafia right now and if we lynch a townie, and then night kill, we're already at lylo. At least if no lynch happens we'll be 4-2 and only mylo. Then we can get something from the night.
Lightning wrote:
Doqtor Kirby wrote:
Vote: Droe

You bold the entire vote phrase. Like so:

Vote: Doqtor Kirby

I was pointing out that the moderator had listed my vote on the wrong player.


Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:49 pm
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Ok I'm going to Unvote

I think we should lynch today because even if we do hit a townie, if we're having our investigators target the same person, they'll be more likely to investigate scum and then we'll have a correct lynch for tomorrow.

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Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:44 am
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Vote Count 3:

Voting Droe: TOWK, Doqtor Kirby (L-2)
Voting TOWK: Crabby
Voting Doqtor Kirby: Lightning

Not voting: Droe, DJW, Pach

Deadline: February 28th, 22:00 GMT-4
With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to reach consensus on a lynch.
If deadline is reached with no consensus, no lynch will happen.

If you find any inconsistencies on vote counts, just send me a PM and I'll fix it.

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Sat Feb 28, 2015 1:19 pm
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Are they scared? Are they too patient?
We don't know. But we know they decided to wait. Maybe this dawn will shed some new light.


Day 1 ends with No Lynch.

Night falls over the town. And they awake... to kill.

Night 1 Begins.


You have 72 hours to send your actions.
If you don't want to use your actions, PM me accordingly.

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Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:23 pm
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